Commercial Viability in Quantum Computing

ICM’s recent whitepaper on the economics of quantum computing argues that most approaches to building a quantum computer are likely to be too expensive and impractical for end-users. While much of the current discourse in this space centres on the scientific feasibility and engineering hurdles of different approaches, ICM sees commercial viability as the most important litmus test for any quantum computing company. After all, it’s not enough to simply build a quantum computer—if it’s too costly or unwieldy to deploy in real-world industry settings, its impact will be limited. The unit economics at scale must make sense.

Commerciality also offers a more accessible lenses through which to assess the field—it doesn’t require a background in quantum physics or advanced engineering, just a grounded view of business fundamentals.

Table Source: Excerpt from the ICM Whitepaper - Estimates of the Run Cost of different Quantum Computers

The field has made consistent progress over the last ten years, punctuated by the recent announcements by majors like Google (with its Willow chip) and Microsoft (with its Majorana 1 chip) which has brought quantum computing well into the public view. It’s heartening to see the genuine progress in a field that promises to have a large impact on the world. That said, ICM shows that it is necessary for companies to have a pathway to commercial viability.

This is a point in time analysis made with publicly available information and best estimates. Ultimately, it is a framework for assessing quantum computing companies not just as scientific projects, but as commercial endeavours.

Access the full whitepaper here.

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