ICM HPQC News Flash - November 2025
- ICM
- Nov 11
- 9 min read
Updated: 6 days ago
ICM HPQC Fund (“ICM HPQC”) continues to see excitement in the next-generation computing space. In this newsflash, we cover:
AI Capital Surge and Bubble Concerns
Space-Based Data Centres Move from Concept to Testing
Google Claims “Quantum Advantage” – But Critics Disagree
DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative
Nvidia Expands its Quantum Ecosystem
Portfolio updates and what we’re seeing across global tech markets
Market Overview
Demand for AI services grows, money continues to flow, and bubble fears are building. OpenAI eyes what could be the biggest IPO of all time with a valuation target of $1T, and Nvidia surpasses $5T of market value.
The exploding demand for data centre infrastructure is putting pressure on energy, water and land resources. One solution gaining momentum is hosting data centres in space, where there is abundant solar energy. Whether this represents realistic technological advancement, a sign of desperation about Earth's resource constraints, or simply hype-driven marketing remains to be seen.
Regardless, major tech leaders are taking it seriously: Google has announced plans to begin trialling the concept in 2027, Elon Musk has said "SpaceX will be doing data centres in space", and Jeff Bezos has predicted "we're going to start building these giant gigawatt data centres in space in the next 10-20 years." The concept took a concrete step forward in early November, when Y Combinator-backed Starcloud successfully launched a satellite featuring a Nvidia GPU on a SpaceX mission.
Advancements in space technology, robotics and AI make it possible to envision data centres operating in space with abundant solar energy and natural cooling. However, significant economic and technical hurdles need to be overcome before this becomes a reality.
In quantum computing, Google has claimed quantum advantage in its latest paper published in Nature, producing a result using a quantum algorithm that is 13,000x faster than a classical computer. The breakthrough algorithm, dubbed “Quantum Echoes” is claimed to be “the first-ever algorithm to achieve verifiable quantum advantage on hardware” although a caveat to the research is that “truly powerful quantum computers that can deal with a range of challenges require millions of qubits” highlighting that although this is an important algorithmic advancement, current hardware remains far from enabling commercially useful applications.
For a detailed overview of what the algorithm is and is not, we point you to Olivier Ezratty’s article, which argues “we are not at all in a quantum advantage regime”, and details why Google’s claim of a “verifiable quantum advantage” with Quantum Echoes is overstated. In summary, the experiment demonstrates a technical step forward in quantum computing, but it is not a meaningful or practical breakthrough.
If Google’s announcement of Quantum Echoes highlights progress in developing useful algorithms - assuming a quantum computer is built - then DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) considers the other part of this question: is it possible to build a quantum computer of the size required in a reasonable timeframe?
To recap, DARPA’s QBI aims “to rigorously verify and validate if any quantum computing approach can achieve utility-scale operation — meaning its computational value exceeds its cost — by the year 2033”. In our view, the programme is the most rigorous and objective assessment of quantum computing roadmaps in the world.
After six months of assessment, DARPA has announced the successful advancement of eleven companies into Stage B and ICM HPQC portfolio company Diraq is one of them. Accompanying Diraq are representatives of many different qubit-types, including neutral atoms, photonics, ion-traps and superconducting and include big names like IBM, IonQ and Quantinuum. It is pleasing to see that of the eleven approaches selected, four of them are silicon-based.
There is a monetary award of up to $15M for progressing to this stage, but more importantly, selection is a signal from the US Government that these technology approaches are realistic. It will be another year before companies are selected to the third and final Stage C, which will provide further validation of roadmaps and unlock up to $300M of US government funding.
Nvidia has also been making moves in quantum computing with the introduction of NVQLink – a high-speed interconnect that lets quantum processors connect to world-leading supercomputing labs. This includes ICM HPQC portfolio company Diraq alongside 16 other QPU makers around the world. We note that there are only five companies in the world, including Diraq, that are DARPA QBI Stage B participants and Nvidia NVQLink partners.
Finally, another quantum computing company has announced its intention to IPO. Canadian quantum computing firm Xanadu will list on Nasdaq, valuing the company at $3.6B. For our views here, we refer you to ICM’s article on quantum computing valuations.
Portfolio News
Diraq has been selected to continue into Stage B of the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI). CEO and Founder Andrew Dzurak said of the achievement: “DARPA’s QBI program, which focuses on achieving utility-scale quantum computing, is aligned with Diraq’s vision: deploying systems that are not only technically feasible and scalable, but which also deliver far greater value than they cost to build and operate – ensuring that quantum computing provides meaningful real-world value to customers without prohibitive costs.” Read here.
Diraq has also teamed up with NVIDIA to employ NVQLink and CUDA-Q to power real-time control and calibration for scalable quantum computing. Read here.
Nard Dumoulin Stuyck, an Engineering Manager at Diraq has also written an excellent article on the company’s relationship with semiconductor manufacturer Imec. Read here.
Leading authority on magnetic navigation and alternative GPS technologies joins Q-CTRL to support development of quantum navigation tech. Read here.
TIME names Q-CTRL’s Ironstone Opal as one of the best inventions of 2025. Read here.
Q-CTRL was featured in a Forbes article discussing the DARPA Robust Quantum Sensors (RoQS) programme and why quantum techniques are an important priority for the US government as an alternative to jammable GPS. Read here.
From the Coal Face
October was a busy month for the HPQC team with trips to the San Francisco Bay Area and around Asia, including attendance at the OCP Global Summit, the PECC Summit and TechCrunch Disrupt.
Of course, almost every conversation centred on AI and a common recognition was just how fast this space is moving. Five years ago ChatGPT didn’t even exist, and now AI and data centre infrastructure dominate news cycles. The result is a need for innovation from algorithms all the way down to the chips. Technology that didn’t have the demand to justify venture investment now has near unlimited demand.
The following slide from Meta’s keynote at the OCP Summit drove home for us the sheer scale of data centre clusters coming online over the next three years and how much this has deviated since AI came online.
A key technology theme in all the conferences was the need for optics in data centres, as a way to increase computing speeds and energy efficiency, whilst decreasing costs. This is no longer an “if” question but rather a “when” and “what” question. Co-packaged optics (CPO) – the method of combining photonics with electronics – had a large amount of attention at all these conferences with some sessions experiencing hour-long queues. The latest view from Lightcounting (a premier analyst for data centre infrastructure) was that while ethernet will dominate over the next two years, co-packaged optics will take an increasing amount of market share.
ICM HPQC has an exciting update coming in the CPO space soon.
What We're Reading
Andy Masley undertakes a critical analysis of the water consumption from data centres, concluding that “the AI water issue is fake” [Andy Masley]
Apple has begun manufacturing AI servers in Houston ahead of schedule, supporting its US$600B US investment and aligning with reshoring efforts. [TechRepublic]
Extropic developed a novel, energy-efficient computer chip using probabilistic bits that could revolutionise AI and scientific computing by dramatically reducing power consumption. [Wired]
Intel has returned to profitability, anticipating AI-driven demand for server CPUs and foundry services as it develops its 18A manufacturing process. [The Register]
Nvidia has begun manufacturing its Blackwell AI chips in Arizona, marking a shift from Taiwan and responding to Trump's call for domestic production. [CNBC]
Alphabet dramatically increased its capital expenditures to US$93B in 2025, primarily to support cloud and AI infrastructure growth, raising investor concerns about potential overinvestment. [The Register]
Amazon has rapidly transformed a 1,200-acre Indiana farmland into a massive AI data centre called Project Rainier, designed to train Anthropic's AI models using its custom Trainium chips. [CNBC]
AMD partnered with the US Energy Department to develop two AI-powered supercomputers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, with US$1B in combined investments. [Bloomberg]
China has submerged a US$226m data centre in Shanghai's ocean, potentially offering a water-conserving and wind-powered solution to energy-intensive AI infrastructure challenges. [Gizmodo]
Hewlett Packard has been selected to build Discovery, an exascale supercomputer, and Lux, an AI cluster, for Oak Ridge National Laboratory to advance scientific research and AI capabilities. [Business Wire]
And Hewlett Packard has been selected to build Mission and Vision supercomputers for Los Alamos National Laboratory, leveraging Nvidia technology to advance AI research and national security. [Business Wire]
Hewlett Packard unveiled the Cray Supercomputing GX5000, a compact, liquid-cooled system offering increased power efficiency and sustainability for high-performance computing and AI infrastructure. [ITPro]
Lambda has announced plans to transform a Kansas City facility into a state-of-the-art AI factory, initially hosting over 10,000 Nvidia GPUs with potential for significant future expansion. [Business Wire]
Meta is investing US$72B in AI infrastructure in 2025, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg acknowledging the investment might primarily serve existing social media business needs. [Gizmodo]
Microsoft plans to double its data centre footprint and boost AI capacity by over 80% to capitalise on the growing AI-driven tech economy. [Gizmodo]
Nvidia partnered with Oracle to build seven AI supercomputers for the US government, featuring over 100,000 Blackwell GPUs with 2,200 ExaFLOPS of compute performance. [Tom's Hardware]
And Nvidia unveiled Omniverse DSX, a digital twin blueprint for designing and operating gigawatt-scale AI data centres with partners like Schneider Electric. [The Register]
OpenAI has committed to spending US$1.4T on infrastructure, aiming to build a gigawatt of data centre capacity per week. [Axios]
Starcloud is preparing to launch an AI-equipped satellite with Nvidia H100 GPUs, aiming to establish energy-efficient, space-based data centres for rapid Earth observation and AI processing. [Nvidia]
Meta, Microsoft, and Google signalled massive ongoing AI infrastructure investments, with each company planning billions in capital expenditures to prepare for anticipated AI growth. [Wired]
Microsoft's record AI infrastructure spending of US$35B exceeded expectations, raising concerns about sustaining the AI boom. [Reuters]
Nvidia enlisted new partners and dismissed AI bubble concerns, projecting massive revenue from its Blackwell and Rubin AI chips through 2026. [Bloomberg]
Jeff Bezos envisions Blue Origin potentially transforming rockets into space-based data centres powered by constant solar energy to address AI's massive power consumption challenges. [TechRadar]
Nvidia has become a pivotal player in AI infrastructure, investing billions in GPUs and strategic partnerships with companies like OpenAI, while driving the massive expansion of computational resources. [TechCrunch]
Jeff Bezos envisions Blue Origin potentially transforming rockets into space-based data centres powered by constant solar energy to address AI's massive power consumption challenges. [TechRadar]
CoreWeave partnered with Poolside to provide advanced AI cloud services, including a cluster of over 40,000 GPUs and support for a 2GW AI campus. [Business Wire]
Samsung has signed a letter of intent with OpenAI to develop floating data centres, memory solutions, and AI infrastructure across multiple business sectors. [TechRadar]
Important Note:
The information in this article should not be considered an offer or solicitation to deal in ICM HPQC Fund (Registration number T22VC0112B-SF003) (the “Sub-fund”). The information is provided on a general basis for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon as investment, legal, tax, or other advice. It does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific investor. The information presented has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is given or may be implied that it is accurate or complete. The Investment Manager reserves the right to amend the information contained herein at any time, without notice. Investments in the Sub-fund are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of investments and the income derived therefrom may fall or rise. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investors should seek relevant professional advice before making any investment decision. This document is intended solely for institutional investors and accredited investors as defined under the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289) of Singapore. This document has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
ICM HPQC Fund is a registered Sub-fund of the ICMGF VCC (the VCC), a variable capital company incorporated in the Republic of Singapore. The assets and liabilities of ICM HPQC Fund are segregated from other Sub-funds of the VCC, in accordance with Section 29 of the VCC Act.
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