ICM HPQC News Flash - October 2025
- ICM
- Oct 10
- 6 min read
Updated: Oct 13
ICM HPQC Fund (“ICM HPQC”) continues to see excitement in the next-generation computing space. In this newsflash, we cover:
Growing concerns of an AI bubble
Quantum computing’s frothy September
Updates from portfolio companies Q-CTRL and Diraq
A round-up of what we’ve been reading and watching
The Bubble Question
As September brought ever-more data centre buildout announcements, investment commitments, and cross-broader collaboration, bubbling below the surface is the question: will AI go from boom to bust? There have been a number of great pieces commenting on the AI bubble, including from Azeem Azhar at Exponential View, who compares 2025’s AI infrastructure boom to the financial bubbles of the past. He concludes that “genAI remains a demand-led, capital-intensive boom rather than a bubble. But booms can sour quickly, and there are several pressure points worth watching”. Azhar describes a few scenarios that might signal that AI is moving into bubble territory, including investment exceeding 2% of GDP, a sustained fall in enterprise and consumer spending, if valuations start approaching a P/E ratio of 50-60, and if internal cash covers less than 25% of capex. The full article can be read here.
The past month has also seen OpenAI commit $300B for cloud compute to Oracle (leading to an Oracle stock jump of 26%), while Oracle relies on billions in chips from Nvidia GPUs, and Nvidia has announced a $100B investment into OpenAI. These seemingly circular deals have again raised fears of a bubble and how much of the boom in AI investment is simply the recycling of Nvidia’s cash.
Meanwhile, Sam Altman of OpenAI says we are in a bubble, predicting that “people will over-invest and lose money, people will under-invest and lose revenue” but that ultimately he is confident that “this technology will drive a new wave of unprecedented economic growth” and Mark Zuckerburg of Meta says a “collapse” is “definitely a possibility” but thinks there’s reason to believe that AI is an outlier. Jensen Huang of Nvidia believes that there is a generational shift from general-purpose computing to accelerated computing and AI, and that investments in compute are to meet compounding demand.
It's prudent for investors to stay cautious in a world where billions of dollars are being thrown around seemingly every other day – and we’ll be keeping track of indicators like Azhar’s - but there is no denying that AI is changing the way we live and work, and compute capacity is core to unleashing that capability. As Altman puts it, “increasing compute is the literal key to increasing revenue.” While there may be market corrections along the way, the enduring winners in AI will be those building and owning the foundations of compute itself – a conviction that sits at the core of our investment thesis across next-generation computing technologies.
Quantum Hype Builds
While we are talking about frothy markets, September has also been a wild ride for the quantum computing sector. There were a number of announcements, including that Quantinuum raised $600M at a $10B valuation, PsiQuantum raised $1B, valuing the company at $7B, and Infleqtion announced that it is to go public at a $1.8B valuation. Even Quantum Computing Inc. (Nasdaq: QUBT) (which, despite the name, is not building quantum computers) raised $750M. While this highlights a general optimism from public and private markets about the potential of quantum computing, we feel concerned about the massive price tags for companies with technology and commercial pathways yet to be proven. Read more from ICM here.
In other quantum news, the Nobel Prize in Physics has been awarded to John Clarke, Michel H. Devoret, and John M. Martinis for their work on quantum mechanics that is paving the way for quantum computers. Read more here.
Portfolio News
Q-CTRL
Researchers from Q-CTRL, Nvidia, and Oxford Quantum Circuits showed that rethinking well-established algorithms to leverage GPU-accelerated computing can help remove a critical bottleneck. The work brings the power of GPU acceleration to quantum compilation, addressing a key barrier to scaling quantum computing in real-world HPC and data centres. By applying advanced graph algorithms on Nvidia GPUs, Q-CTRL achieved up to 10,000x speedups in optimising quantum circuits. This makes it possible to compile far more complex problems on today’s hardware.
The same methods also deliver benefits in classical machine learning, where large-scale optimisation challenges can be solved more efficiently. Read more here.
Diraq
Diraq demonstrated its silicon qubits can be produced at a high quality across all operations on a standard semiconductor production line, showing that silicon-based
quantum computers can be built by leveraging the mature semiconductor industry, which opens a cost-effective pathway to chips containing millions of qubits at the quality required. Diraq published its results in the reputable Nature magazine. Read more here.
Flash Snap: Quick Link Roundup of the Latest Plays (In Case You Missed Them)
America’s AI data centres are having an impact on the environment, putting pressure on companies to innovate to reduce water usage and power consumption. [Business Insider]
A US-UK pact will boost AI research in pharmaceutical developments. This comes as American tech firms back historic agreement pouring £31B into UK AI and tech infrastructure, including Microsoft’s largest ever commitment to the UK. [UK Gov]
Nvidia announces a £2B investment in the UK AI startup ecosystem alongside top UK VCs [Nvidia]
OpenAI announces UK Stargate, an AI infrastructure partnership to strengthen the UK’s sovereign compute capabilities. OpenAI are looking to deploy up to 8,000 GPUs in Q1 2026, with the potential to scale to 31,000 GPUs over time. [OpenAI]
Microsoft announces world’s “most powerful AI datacenter”, Fairwater, located in southeastern Wisconsin. It will invest $7B. [Microsoft]
The FT writes about Australia’s impact on the quantum computing space. [Financial Times]
OpenAI expands the US Stargate project with five US sites. [Financial Times]
Nvidia to invest up to $100B in OpenAI, linking two artificial intelligence titans. [Reuters]
Sam Altman describes how compute is the critical bottleneck to the positive impact AI could have on areas like drug discovery and education [Sam Altman]
Exponential View analyses how other financial bubbles have formed to assess whether we are in one now. [Exponential View]
Deutsche Bank warned that AI spending is unsustainably high, potentially propping up the US economy through massive investments with uncertain returns. [Gizmodo]
A survey by Google revealed that 90% of developers now use AI at work, with two-thirds relying heavily on it despite limited trust in its output. [TechRadar]
Tech giants face potential multi-trillion-dollar valuation adjustments due to rapidly evolving AI infrastructure and uncertain depreciation schedules for expensive semiconductor investments. [The Economist]
Plus, OpenAI aims to build a gigawatt-per-week AI infrastructure factory, believing increased computational power could revolutionise global problem-solving and potentially become a fundamental human right. [TechRadar]
Nvidia and Intel’s US$5B partnership is aimed at competing with AMD by developing integrated CPU-GPU chips for the notebook market. [The Verge]
Computer Dynamics Modular unveiled two purpose-built modular data centre platforms designed to address AI, edge, and hyperscale infrastructure challenges. [Business Wire]
CoreWeave signed a US$6.3B order with Nvidia, guaranteeing the chipmaker will purchase any unsold cloud capacity through 2032. [Reuters]
Gartner projects that global AI spending will surge to US$2T by 2026, driven by infrastructure expansion, AI services, and investments from tech giants worldwide. [ITPro]
Investment Principal Kate Prebble will be in the San Francisco Bay area in October at the OCP Global Summit (13-16 October), the PECC Global Summit (21-22 October) and TechCrunch Disrupt (27-29 October).
Important Note:
The information in this article should not be considered an offer or solicitation to deal in ICM HPQC Fund (Registration number T22VC0112B-SF003) (the “Sub-fund”). The information is provided on a general basis for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon as investment, legal, tax, or other advice. It does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific investor. The information presented has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is given or may be implied that it is accurate or complete. The Investment Manager reserves the right to amend the information contained herein at any time, without notice. Investments in the Sub-fund are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of investments and the income derived therefrom may fall or rise. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investors should seek relevant professional advice before making any investment decision. This document is intended solely for institutional investors and accredited investors as defined under the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289) of Singapore. This document has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
ICM HPQC Fund is a registered Sub-fund of the ICMGF VCC (the VCC), a variable capital company incorporated in the Republic of Singapore. The assets and liabilities of ICM HPQC Fund are segregated from other Sub-funds of the VCC, in accordance with Section 29 of the VCC Act.
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