Financial markets have enjoyed a decent start to 2025. Year to date, in rank order, the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 10.0%, the Dow Jones is up c.4.8%. the S&P 500 is up c.3.2%, and the NASDAQ is up c.1.7%. The oil price is up 2.6% year to date. The gold price has increased 10.2%, in a straight line, whereas US equities have been a roller coaster for investors this year so far. We can confidently say that volatility will likely continue for the foreseeable, given President Trump's predictably unpredictable behaviour. President Trump is doling out populist executive orders faster than Elon can tweet. No day goes by when the world is not left wondering what comes next from the leader of the free world. By way of example, consider the 6th of February; but you can take your pick of any day since the 20th of January. On the morning of the 6th, the US President negotiated a peace deal between, ahem, the PGA Golf Tour and LIV Golf, and in the afternoon, he announced that he would “take over” Gaza. That is one hell of a day’s work by anyone’s standards! I fear complacency for whimsical decisions will have long-lasting consequences.
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